Palermo 3–0 Avellino: Result & Stats | Serie B

Palermo

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Avellino

A. Trajkovski 73' (pen)

A. La Gumina 47'

Coronado 9' (pen)

4/21/2018

Serie B · Round 37Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Palermo63%

×Draw22%

Avellino14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalermoExpected goals in this matchAvellino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.71

Palermo

1.80

Avellino

0.71

Palermo creates 154% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

1.94

creates per match

0.43

0.99

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Palermo

1.94

Avellino

0.43

allows per match

Palermo

0.99

Avellino

1.66

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palermo+0.39scores more

Avellino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Avellino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Palermo or draw

86%

Palermo or Avellino

78%

Draw or Avellino

37%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+

37%

Avellino wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals

83%

Palermo 2+ goals

54%

Palermo 3+ goals

27%

Avellino 1+ goals

51%

Avellino 2+ goals

16%

Avellino 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)

82%

Avellino (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.99 · 12 matches

Avellino away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.66 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 1.94 + Avellino defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.80

Avellino attack 0.43 + Palermo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Palermo scores more

63%

level

22%

Avellino scores more

14%

Palermo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Santiago Morero

9'

CoronadoPenalty

46'

A. Accardi← G. Bellusci

47'

A. La Gumina↳ A. Trajkovski

52'

Salvatore Molina

62'

Asencio← L. Laverone

69'

A. Fiordilino← R. Murawski

71'

Igor Coronado

73'

A. TrajkovskiPenalty

75'

B. Cabezas← A. Vajushi

77'

Carlo De Risio

88'

R. Wilmots← M. Ardemagni

89'

C. Fiore← S. Rajković

Possession

Shots

Statistics

PalermoAvellino

Overview

56%Possession44%

5Total Shots13

2Corners3

15Fouls6

Shots

5Total Shots13

3On Target4

2Off Target9

Passing

56%Possession44%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls6

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides3