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Palermo U19 vs Empoli U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Palermo U19
Palermo U19
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Empoli U19
Empoli U19
12/13/2025Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Palermo U1919%
×Draw23%
Empoli U1958%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palermo U19
0.89
Empoli U19
1.75

Empoli U19 creates 97% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Palermo U19
1.24
Empoli U19
2.27

allows per match

Palermo U19
1.22
Empoli U19
0.53

finishing

Palermo U19+0.00on par
Empoli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo U19 ↓

Empoli U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Palermo U19 or draw
42%
Palermo U19 or Empoli U19
77%
Draw or Empoli U19
81%

Winning margin

Palermo U19 wins by 2+
6%
Empoli U19 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Palermo U19 1+ goals
59%
Palermo U19 2+ goals
22%
Palermo U19 3+ goals
6%
Empoli U19 1+ goals
83%
Empoli U19 2+ goals
52%
Empoli U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Palermo U19 (draw refunded)
25%
Empoli U19 (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo U19 at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.22 · 45 matches

Empoli U19 away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo U19 attack 1.24 + Empoli U19 defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.89

Empoli U19 attack 2.27 + Palermo U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Palermo U19 scores more
19%
level
23%
Empoli U19 scores more
58%

Empoli U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Empoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Palermo U19 0–0 Empoli U19

Palermo U19 and Empoli U19 drew 0-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on December 13, 2025.