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Empoli U19 vs Palermo U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Empoli U19
Empoli U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Palermo U19
Palermo U19
2/14/2026Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 19Centro Sportivo di Petroio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Empoli U1965%
×Draw20%
Palermo U1916%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Empoli U19
2.16
Palermo U19
0.95

Empoli U19 creates 127% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 45 away

creates per match

Empoli U19
2.75
Palermo U19
1.22

allows per match

Empoli U19
0.69
Palermo U19
1.56

finishing

Empoli U19+0.00on par
Palermo U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli U19 ↓

Palermo U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Empoli U19 or draw
84%
Empoli U19 or Palermo U19
80%
Draw or Palermo U19
35%

Winning margin

Empoli U19 wins by 2+
41%
Palermo U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Empoli U19 1+ goals
88%
Empoli U19 2+ goals
63%
Empoli U19 3+ goals
36%
Palermo U19 1+ goals
61%
Palermo U19 2+ goals
25%
Palermo U19 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Empoli U19 (draw refunded)
81%
Palermo U19 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli U19 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

Palermo U19 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli U19 attack 2.75 + Palermo U19 defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.16

Palermo U19 attack 1.22 + Empoli U19 defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Empoli U19 scores more
65%
level
20%
Palermo U19 scores more
16%

Empoli U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Empoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Empoli U19 3–0 Palermo U19

Empoli U19 beat Palermo U19 3-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on February 14, 2026.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo di Petroio.