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Palencia CF vs Numancia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Palencia CF
Palencia CF
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Numancia II
Numancia II
D. Vallecillo 56', 24'
11/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 12Estadio La Nueva Balastera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Palencia CF52%
×Draw25%
Numancia II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palencia CF
1.63
Numancia II
0.99

Palencia CF creates 65% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 76 away

creates per match

Palencia CF
1.67
Numancia II
0.95

allows per match

Palencia CF
1.04
Numancia II
1.58

finishing

Palencia CF+0.00on par
Numancia II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palencia CF ↓

Numancia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Palencia CF or draw
77%
Palencia CF or Numancia II
75%
Draw or Numancia II
48%

Winning margin

Palencia CF wins by 2+
28%
Numancia II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Palencia CF 1+ goals
80%
Palencia CF 2+ goals
48%
Palencia CF 3+ goals
22%
Numancia II 1+ goals
63%
Numancia II 2+ goals
26%
Numancia II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Palencia CF (draw refunded)
69%
Numancia II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palencia CF at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 85 matches

Numancia II away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.58 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palencia CF attack 1.67 + Numancia II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.63

Numancia II attack 0.95 + Palencia CF defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Palencia CF scores more
52%
level
25%
Numancia II scores more
23%

Palencia CF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Palencia CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
D. Vallecillo
56'
D. Vallecillo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Palencia CF 2 – 0 Numancia II

Palencia CF beat Numancia II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 23, 2025.

Goals: D. Vallecillo (24', 56').

The match was played at Estadio La Nueva Balastera in Palencia.