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Numancia II vs Palencia CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Numancia II
Numancia II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Palencia CF
Palencia CF
4/5/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 29Ciudad del Fútbol Francisco Rubio Garcés Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Numancia II43%
×Draw27%
Palencia CF30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Numancia II
1.36
Palencia CF
1.09

Numancia II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 84 away

creates per match

Numancia II
1.53
Palencia CF
0.93

allows per match

Numancia II
1.25
Palencia CF
1.20

finishing

Numancia II+0.00on par
Palencia CF+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia II ↓

Palencia CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Numancia II or draw
70%
Numancia II or Palencia CF
73%
Draw or Palencia CF
57%

Winning margin

Numancia II wins by 2+
20%
Palencia CF wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Numancia II 1+ goals
74%
Numancia II 2+ goals
39%
Numancia II 3+ goals
16%
Palencia CF 1+ goals
66%
Palencia CF 2+ goals
30%
Palencia CF 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Numancia II (draw refunded)
59%
Palencia CF (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.25 · 76 matches

Palencia CF away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia II attack 1.53 + Palencia CF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.36

Palencia CF attack 0.93 + Numancia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Numancia II scores more
43%
level
27%
Palencia CF scores more
30%

Numancia II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Numancia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Numancia II vs Palencia CF

Palencia CF beat Numancia II 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at Ciudad del Fútbol Francisco Rubio Garcés Campo 2 in Soria.