Palencia CF 1–2 Mirandés II: Result & Stats

Palencia CF

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mirandés II

Gerard Puerto 48'

Marcos Gracia 54'

Yidne Pinto 35'

2/23/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 25Estadio La Nueva Balastera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Palencia CF48%

×Draw26%

Mirandés II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Palencia CFExpected goals in this matchMirandés II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.04

Palencia CF

1.50

Mirandés II

1.04

Palencia CF creates 44% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 112 away

1.67

creates per match

1.04

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Palencia CF

1.67

Mirandés II

1.04

allows per match

Palencia CF

1.04

Mirandés II

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palencia CF+0.00on par

Mirandés II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palencia CF ↓

Mirandés II →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Palencia CF or draw

74%

Palencia CF or Mirandés II

74%

Draw or Mirandés II

52%

Winning margin

Palencia CF wins by 2+

24%

Mirandés II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Palencia CF 1+ goals

78%

Palencia CF 2+ goals

44%

Palencia CF 3+ goals

19%

Mirandés II 1+ goals

65%

Mirandés II 2+ goals

28%

Mirandés II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Palencia CF (draw refunded)

65%

Mirandés II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Palencia CF at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 85 matches

Mirandés II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Palencia CF attack 1.67 + Mirandés II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.50

Mirandés II attack 1.04 + Palencia CF defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Palencia CF scores more

48%

level

26%

Mirandés II scores more

26%

Palencia CF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Palencia CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

J. Romaric← Javier Vidorreta

35'

Yidne Pinto

48'

Gerard Puerto

54'

Marcos Gracia

63'

David Caperuchipi← Fer Muriel

63'

Haji Ceesay← Héctor Blanco

63'

Iván Cabellud← Adrián Calvo

65'

Alberto García← Alejandro

70'

Víctor Díez← Gerard Puerto

77'

Diego Rosales← Iván Santamaría

90+1'

Adrián Soriano← Imanol Goikoetxea

90+1'

Álex Jiménez← I. Udoh

Palencia

Mirandés

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▼

⚽

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⚽

▼

▼

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Manager: Miñambres

25'▲J. Romaric←▼Javier Vidorreta

63'▲David Caperuchipi←▼Fer Muriel

63'▲Haji Ceesay←▼Héctor Blanco

63'▲Iván Cabellud←▼Adrián Calvo

70'▲Víctor Díez←▼Gerard Puerto

Palencia CF substitutes

RomaricCaperuchipiCeesayCabelludDíez

Manager: José Trejo

65'▲Alberto García←▼Alejandro

77'▲Diego Rosales←▼Iván Santamaría

90+1'▲Adrián Soriano←▼Imanol Goikoetxea

90+1'▲Álex Jiménez←▼I. Udoh

Mirandés II substitutes

GarcíaRosalesSorianoJiménez

Match Recap: Palencia CF vs Mirandés II

Mirandés II beat Palencia CF 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 23, 2025.

Goals: Yidne Pinto (35'), Gerard Puerto (48'), Marcos Gracia (54').

The match was played at Estadio La Nueva Balastera in Palencia.

Palencia CF vs Mirandés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Palencia CF vs Mirandés II