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Mirandés II vs Palencia CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Mirandés II
Mirandés II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Palencia CF
Palencia CF
9/21/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 3Estadio Municipal de Ence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Mirandés II43%
×Draw28%
Palencia CF28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirandés II
1.27
Palencia CF
0.96

Mirandés II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 84 away

creates per match

Mirandés II
1.34
Palencia CF
0.93

allows per match

Mirandés II
0.99
Palencia CF
1.20

finishing

Mirandés II+0.00on par
Palencia CF+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandés II ↓

Palencia CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mirandés II or draw
72%
Mirandés II or Palencia CF
72%
Draw or Palencia CF
57%

Winning margin

Mirandés II wins by 2+
20%
Palencia CF wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mirandés II 1+ goals
72%
Mirandés II 2+ goals
36%
Mirandés II 3+ goals
14%
Palencia CF 1+ goals
62%
Palencia CF 2+ goals
25%
Palencia CF 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mirandés II (draw refunded)
61%
Palencia CF (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandés II at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Palencia CF away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandés II attack 1.34 + Palencia CF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Palencia CF attack 0.93 + Mirandés II defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mirandés II scores more
43%
level
28%
Palencia CF scores more
28%

Mirandés II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mirandés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mirandés II 0 – 2 Palencia CF

Palencia CF beat Mirandés II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ence in Miranda de Ebro.