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Palencia CF vs La Virgen del Camino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Palencia CF
Palencia CF
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
4/25/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 32Estadio La Nueva Balastera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Palencia CF49%
×Draw25%
La Virgen del Camino25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palencia CF
1.55
La Virgen del Camino
1.04

Palencia CF creates 49% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 111 away

creates per match

Palencia CF
1.67
La Virgen del Camino
1.05

allows per match

Palencia CF
1.04
La Virgen del Camino
1.43

finishing

Palencia CF+0.00on par
La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palencia CF ↓

La Virgen del Camino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Palencia CF or draw
75%
Palencia CF or La Virgen del Camino
75%
Draw or La Virgen del Camino
51%

Winning margin

Palencia CF wins by 2+
25%
La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Palencia CF 1+ goals
79%
Palencia CF 2+ goals
46%
Palencia CF 3+ goals
20%
La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
65%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
28%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Palencia CF (draw refunded)
66%
La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palencia CF at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 85 matches

La Virgen del Camino away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palencia CF attack 1.67 + La Virgen del Camino defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.55

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.05 + Palencia CF defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Palencia CF scores more
49%
level
25%
La Virgen del Camino scores more
25%

Palencia CF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Palencia CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Palencia CF 3–2 La Virgen del Camino

Palencia CF beat La Virgen del Camino 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 25, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio La Nueva Balastera in Palencia.