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La Virgen del Camino vs Palencia CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Palencia CF
Palencia CF
11/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 10Campo Los Dominicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

La Virgen del Camino41%
×Draw30%
Palencia CF29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Virgen del Camino
1.15
Palencia CF
0.93

La Virgen del Camino creates 24% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 84 away

creates per match

La Virgen del Camino
1.10
Palencia CF
0.93

allows per match

La Virgen del Camino
0.93
Palencia CF
1.20

finishing

La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par
Palencia CF+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Virgen del Camino ↓

Palencia CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

La Virgen del Camino or draw
71%
La Virgen del Camino or Palencia CF
70%
Draw or Palencia CF
59%

Winning margin

La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
17%
Palencia CF wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
68%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
32%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
11%
Palencia CF 1+ goals
61%
Palencia CF 2+ goals
24%
Palencia CF 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
58%
Palencia CF (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Virgen del Camino at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Palencia CF away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.10 + Palencia CF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Palencia CF attack 0.93 + La Virgen del Camino defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

La Virgen del Camino scores more
41%
level
30%
Palencia CF scores more
29%

La Virgen del Camino at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "La Virgen del Camino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

La Virgen del Camino 0 – 1 Palencia CF

Palencia CF beat La Virgen del Camino 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Los Dominicos in La Virgen Del Camino.