Palencia CF 3–2 Atlético Astorga: Result & Stats

Palencia CF

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Astorga

Fer Muriel 60'

David Vallecillo 56'

Adrián Calvo 1'

David Álvarez 90+4' (pen)

Javi Álvarez 47'

1/5/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 18Estadio La Nueva Balastera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Palencia CF39%

×Draw27%

Atlético Astorga33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Palencia CFExpected goals in this matchAtlético Astorga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.16

Palencia CF

1.28

Atlético Astorga

1.16

Palencia CF creates 10% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 93 away

1.67

creates per match

1.27

1.04

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Palencia CF

1.67

Atlético Astorga

1.27

allows per match

Palencia CF

1.04

Atlético Astorga

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palencia CF+0.00on par

Atlético Astorga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palencia CF ↓

Atlético Astorga →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Palencia CF or draw

67%

Palencia CF or Atlético Astorga

73%

Draw or Atlético Astorga

61%

Winning margin

Palencia CF wins by 2+

17%

Atlético Astorga wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Palencia CF 1+ goals

72%

Palencia CF 2+ goals

37%

Palencia CF 3+ goals

14%

Atlético Astorga 1+ goals

69%

Atlético Astorga 2+ goals

32%

Atlético Astorga 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Palencia CF (draw refunded)

54%

Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Palencia CF at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 85 matches

Atlético Astorga away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Palencia CF attack 1.67 + Atlético Astorga defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.28

Atlético Astorga attack 1.27 + Palencia CF defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Palencia CF scores more

39%

level

27%

Atlético Astorga scores more

33%

Palencia CF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Palencia CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Adrián Calvo

11'

Víctor Díez← Adrián Calvo

47'

Javi Álvarez

56'

David Vallecillo

60'

Fer Muriel

64'

Javi Amor← Aleixo Cabral

73'

Antonio Bueno← Gerard Puerto

73'

Javier Vidorreta← Fer Muriel

73'

Emilio Iglesias← Haji Ceesay

77'

David Álvarez← Javi Álvarez

77'

Pablo del Valle← Albertín

77'

Alejandro Ribeiro← Christian Bueno

82'

Adri Herrera← David Vallecillo

83'

Manu Martín← Ivi Vales

89'

M. A. Manso

89'

M. A. Manso

90+4'

David ÁlvarezPenalty

Palencia

Atlético

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Calvo

⚽

▼

Muriel

⚽

▼

Vallecill

Romaric

Manager: Jonathan Prado

11'▲Víctor Díez←▼Adrián Calvo

73'▲Antonio Bueno←▼Gerard Puerto

73'▲Javier Vidorreta←▼Fer Muriel

73'▲Emilio Iglesias←▼Haji Ceesay

82'▲Adri Herrera←▼David Vallecillo

Palencia CF substitutes

DíezBuenoVidorretaIglesiasHerrera

Manager: José Lago

64'▲Javi Amor←▼Aleixo Cabral

77'▲David Álvarez←▼Javi Álvarez

77'▲Pablo del Valle←▼Albertín

77'▲Alejandro Ribeiro←▼Christian Bueno

83'▲Manu Martín←▼Ivi Vales

Atlético Astorga substitutes

AmorÁlvarezValleRibeiroMartín