Atlético Astorga 1–1 Palencia CF: Result & Stats

Atlético Astorga

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Palencia CF

Diego Peláez 10'

Sekou Kante 29'

9/9/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 1Estadio La Eragudina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Atlético Astorga51%

×Draw27%

Palencia CF22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético AstorgaExpected goals in this matchPalencia CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.85

Atlético Astorga

1.44

Palencia CF

0.85

Atlético Astorga creates 69% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 84 away

1.68

creates per match

0.93

0.77

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Atlético Astorga

1.68

Palencia CF

0.93

allows per match

Atlético Astorga

0.77

Palencia CF

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Astorga+0.00on par

Palencia CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Astorga ↓

Palencia CF →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Astorga or draw

78%

Atlético Astorga or Palencia CF

73%

Draw or Palencia CF

49%

Winning margin

Atlético Astorga wins by 2+

25%

Palencia CF wins by 2+

Team goals

Atlético Astorga 1+ goals

76%

Atlético Astorga 2+ goals

42%

Atlético Astorga 3+ goals

18%

Palencia CF 1+ goals

57%

Palencia CF 2+ goals

21%

Palencia CF 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)

70%

Palencia CF (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Astorga at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.77 · 93 matches

Palencia CF away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Astorga attack 1.68 + Palencia CF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Palencia CF attack 0.93 + Atlético Astorga defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atlético Astorga scores more

51%

level

27%

Palencia CF scores more

22%

Atlético Astorga at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atlético Astorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Diego Peláez

29'

Sekou Kante

53'

Jonatan Lopes← Andrés Calvo

53'

Albertín← Sergio Fernández

53'

Javi Amor← Lorento

67'

Viti García← Carlos García

67'

Alejandro Gómez← Rubén Vallejo

76'

Íñigo Astudillo← Kuko

82'

Adri Herrera← Jesús Torres

Atlético

Palencia

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: José Lago

53'▲Jonatan Lopes←▼Andrés Calvo

53'▲Albertín←▼Sergio Fernández

53'▲Javi Amor←▼Lorento

Atlético Astorga substitutes

LopesAlbertínAmor

Manager: Diego Rojas

67'▲Viti García←▼Carlos García

67'▲Alejandro Gómez←▼Rubén Vallejo

76'▲Íñigo Astudillo←▼Kuko

82'▲Adri Herrera←▼Jesús Torres

Palencia CF substitutes

GarcíaGómezAstudilloHerrera

Match Recap: Atlético Astorga vs Palencia CF

Atlético Astorga and Palencia CF drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 9, 2023.

Goals: Diego Peláez (10'), Sekou Kante (29').

The match was played at Estadio La Eragudina in Astorga.

Atlético Astorga vs Palencia CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Astorga vs Palencia CF