Palencia CF 1–2 Arandina: Result & Stats

Palencia CF

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Arandina

5/11/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 38Estadio La Nueva Balastera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Palencia CF41%

×Draw27%

Arandina32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Palencia CFExpected goals in this matchArandina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.15

Palencia CF

1.35

Arandina

1.15

Palencia CF creates 17% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 94 away

1.67

creates per match

1.26

1.04

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Palencia CF

1.67

Arandina

1.26

allows per match

Palencia CF

1.04

Arandina

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palencia CF+0.00on par

Arandina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palencia CF ↓

Arandina →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Palencia CF or draw

68%

Palencia CF or Arandina

73%

Draw or Arandina

59%

Winning margin

Palencia CF wins by 2+

19%

Arandina wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Palencia CF 1+ goals

74%

Palencia CF 2+ goals

39%

Palencia CF 3+ goals

15%

Arandina 1+ goals

68%

Arandina 2+ goals

32%

Arandina 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Palencia CF (draw refunded)

56%

Arandina (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Palencia CF at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 85 matches

Arandina away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Palencia CF attack 1.67 + Arandina defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.35

Arandina attack 1.26 + Palencia CF defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Palencia CF scores more

41%

level

27%

Arandina scores more

32%

Palencia CF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Palencia CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff