Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Arandina vs Palencia CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Arandina
Arandina
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Palencia CF
Palencia CF
1/17/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 18Estadio El Montecillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Arandina50%
×Draw27%
Palencia CF23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arandina
1.40
Palencia CF
0.86

Arandina creates 63% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 84 away

creates per match

Arandina
1.60
Palencia CF
0.93

allows per match

Arandina
0.80
Palencia CF
1.20

finishing

Arandina+0.00on par
Palencia CF+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arandina ↓

Palencia CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Arandina or draw
77%
Arandina or Palencia CF
73%
Draw or Palencia CF
50%

Winning margin

Arandina wins by 2+
24%
Palencia CF wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arandina 1+ goals
75%
Arandina 2+ goals
41%
Arandina 3+ goals
17%
Palencia CF 1+ goals
58%
Palencia CF 2+ goals
21%
Palencia CF 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Arandina (draw refunded)
68%
Palencia CF (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arandina at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 94 matches

Palencia CF away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arandina attack 1.60 + Palencia CF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Palencia CF attack 0.93 + Arandina defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Arandina scores more
50%
level
27%
Palencia CF scores more
23%

Arandina at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Arandina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Arandina 0–1 Palencia CF

Palencia CF beat Arandina 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 17, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio El Montecillo in Aranda de Duero.