Palanga 0–2 Atlantas: Result & Stats | A Lyga

Palanga

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Atlantas

8/25/2019

A Lyga · Round 21Centrinis miesto stadionas (Palanga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Palanga45%

×Draw22%

Atlantas33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalangaExpected goals in this matchAtlantas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.59

Palanga

1.88

Atlantas

1.59

Palanga creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

1.00

creates per match

0.82

2.36

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Palanga

1.00

Atlantas

0.82

allows per match

Palanga

2.36

Atlantas

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palanga+0.00on par

Atlantas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palanga ↓

Atlantas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Palanga or draw

67%

Palanga or Atlantas

78%

Draw or Atlantas

55%

Winning margin

Palanga wins by 2+

24%

Atlantas wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Palanga 1+ goals

85%

Palanga 2+ goals

56%

Palanga 3+ goals

29%

Atlantas 1+ goals

80%

Atlantas 2+ goals

47%

Atlantas 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Palanga (draw refunded)

58%

Atlantas (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palanga at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

Atlantas away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palanga attack 1.00 + Atlantas defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 1.88

Atlantas attack 0.82 + Palanga defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Palanga scores more

45%

level

22%

Atlantas scores more

33%

Palanga at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Palanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff