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Atlantas vs Palanga — A Lyga 2026

Atlantas
Atlantas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Palanga
Palanga
10/26/2019A LygaA Lyga · Round 28Klaipėdos m. centrinis stadionas (Klaipėda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Atlantas45%
×Draw23%
Palanga32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlantas
1.82
Palanga
1.50

Atlantas creates 21% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

creates per match

Atlantas
1.00
Palanga
1.07

allows per match

Atlantas
1.94
Palanga
2.64

finishing

Atlantas+0.00on par
Palanga+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlantas ↓

Palanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Atlantas or draw
68%
Atlantas or Palanga
77%
Draw or Palanga
55%

Winning margin

Atlantas wins by 2+
24%
Palanga wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atlantas 1+ goals
84%
Atlantas 2+ goals
54%
Atlantas 3+ goals
27%
Palanga 1+ goals
78%
Palanga 2+ goals
44%
Palanga 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Atlantas (draw refunded)
59%
Palanga (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlantas at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Palanga away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlantas attack 1.00 + Palanga defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.82

Palanga attack 1.07 + Atlantas defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlantas scores more
45%
level
23%
Palanga scores more
32%

Atlantas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlantas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlantas vs Palanga

Palanga beat Atlantas 1-0 in A Lyga on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Klaipėdos m. centrinis stadionas (Klaipėda).