Paksi SE II 3–1 Mohácsi TE: Result & Stats

Paksi SE II

FT

3 – 1

Mohácsi TE

3/17/2024

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 20Paksi FC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Paksi SE II53%

×Draw22%

Mohácsi TE25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paksi SE IIExpected goals in this matchMohácsi TE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.29

Paksi SE II

1.96

Mohácsi TE

1.29

Paksi SE II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

1.91

creates per match

0.73

1.84

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Paksi SE II

1.91

Mohácsi TE

0.73

allows per match

Paksi SE II

1.84

Mohácsi TE

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paksi SE II+0.00on par

Mohácsi TE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paksi SE II ↓

Mohácsi TE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Paksi SE II or draw

75%

Paksi SE II or Mohácsi TE

78%

Draw or Mohácsi TE

47%

Winning margin

Paksi SE II wins by 2+

31%

Mohácsi TE wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Paksi SE II 1+ goals

86%

Paksi SE II 2+ goals

58%

Paksi SE II 3+ goals

31%

Mohácsi TE 1+ goals

72%

Mohácsi TE 2+ goals

37%

Mohácsi TE 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Paksi SE II (draw refunded)

68%

Mohácsi TE (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paksi SE II at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

Mohácsi TE away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paksi SE II attack 1.91 + Mohácsi TE defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Mohácsi TE attack 0.73 + Paksi SE II defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Paksi SE II scores more

53%

level

22%

Mohácsi TE scores more

25%

Paksi SE II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Paksi SE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff