Mohácsi TE 6–1 Paksi SE II: Result & Stats

Mohácsi TE

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Paksi SE II

8/30/2023

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 5Újvárosi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mohácsi TE44%

×Draw25%

Paksi SE II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mohácsi TEExpected goals in this matchPaksi SE II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.25

Mohácsi TE

1.52

Paksi SE II

1.25

Mohácsi TE creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

1.07

creates per match

1.36

1.13

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Mohácsi TE

1.07

Paksi SE II

1.36

allows per match

Mohácsi TE

1.13

Paksi SE II

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mohácsi TE+0.00on par

Paksi SE II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohácsi TE ↓

Paksi SE II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Mohácsi TE or draw

69%

Mohácsi TE or Paksi SE II

75%

Draw or Paksi SE II

56%

Winning margin

Mohácsi TE wins by 2+

22%

Paksi SE II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mohácsi TE 1+ goals

78%

Mohácsi TE 2+ goals

45%

Mohácsi TE 3+ goals

20%

Paksi SE II 1+ goals

71%

Paksi SE II 2+ goals

36%

Paksi SE II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mohácsi TE (draw refunded)

58%

Paksi SE II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohácsi TE at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Paksi SE II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.96 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohácsi TE attack 1.07 + Paksi SE II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.52

Paksi SE II attack 1.36 + Mohácsi TE defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mohácsi TE scores more

44%

level

25%

Paksi SE II scores more

31%

Mohácsi TE at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mohácsi TE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff