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Paksi SE II vs Főnix — NB III - Southwest 2019

Paksi SE II
Paksi SE II
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Főnix
Főnix
3/22/2025NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 21Paksi FC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Paksi SE II61%
×Draw18%
Főnix22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paksi SE II
2.75
Főnix
1.62

Paksi SE II creates 70% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Paksi SE II
1.91
Főnix
1.40

allows per match

Paksi SE II
1.84
Főnix
3.60

finishing

Paksi SE II+0.00on par
Főnix+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paksi SE II ↓

Főnix →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Paksi SE II or draw
78%
Paksi SE II or Főnix
82%
Draw or Főnix
39%

Winning margin

Paksi SE II wins by 2+
41%
Főnix wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Paksi SE II 1+ goals
93%
Paksi SE II 2+ goals
75%
Paksi SE II 3+ goals
51%
Főnix 1+ goals
80%
Főnix 2+ goals
48%
Főnix 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Paksi SE II (draw refunded)
74%
Főnix (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paksi SE II at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

Főnix away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paksi SE II attack 1.91 + Főnix defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.75

Főnix attack 1.40 + Paksi SE II defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Paksi SE II scores more
61%
level
18%
Főnix scores more
22%

Paksi SE II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Paksi SE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Paksi SE II 5–1 Főnix

Paksi SE II beat Főnix 5-1 in NB III - Southwest on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Paksi FC Stadion in Paks.