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Főnix vs Paksi SE II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Főnix
Főnix
FT
3 – 2
Paksi SE II
Paksi SE II
9/1/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 6Főnix Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Főnix31%
×Draw22%
Paksi SE II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Főnix
1.48
Paksi SE II
1.88

Paksi SE II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Főnix
1.00
Paksi SE II
1.36

allows per match

Főnix
2.40
Paksi SE II
1.96

finishing

Főnix+0.00on par
Paksi SE II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Főnix ↓

Paksi SE II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Főnix or draw
53%
Főnix or Paksi SE II
78%
Draw or Paksi SE II
69%

Winning margin

Főnix wins by 2+
14%
Paksi SE II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Főnix 1+ goals
77%
Főnix 2+ goals
43%
Főnix 3+ goals
19%
Paksi SE II 1+ goals
85%
Paksi SE II 2+ goals
56%
Paksi SE II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Főnix (draw refunded)
39%
Paksi SE II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Főnix at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Paksi SE II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.96 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Főnix attack 1.00 + Paksi SE II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.48

Paksi SE II attack 1.36 + Főnix defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Főnix scores more
31%
level
22%
Paksi SE II scores more
47%

Paksi SE II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Paksi SE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Főnix 3–2 Paksi SE II

Főnix beat Paksi SE II 3-2 in NB III - Southwest on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at Főnix Park in Székesfehérvár.