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Pakruojis vs Nevėžis — 1 Lyga 2026

Pakruojis
Pakruojis
FT
1 – 9
Nevėžis
Nevėžis
7/26/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 17Pakruojo miesto stadionas (Pakruojis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pakruojis10%
×Draw13%
Nevėžis77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakruojis
1.04
Nevėžis
3.07

Nevėžis creates 195% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 83 away

creates per match

Pakruojis
0.79
Nevėžis
1.57

allows per match

Pakruojis
4.57
Nevėžis
1.28

finishing

Pakruojis+0.00on par
Nevėžis+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakruojis ↓

Nevėžis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–28%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Pakruojis or draw
23%
Pakruojis or Nevėžis
87%
Draw or Nevėžis
90%

Winning margin

Pakruojis wins by 2+
3%
Nevėžis wins by 2+
57%

Team goals

Pakruojis 1+ goals
65%
Pakruojis 2+ goals
28%
Pakruojis 3+ goals
9%
Nevėžis 1+ goals
95%
Nevėžis 2+ goals
80%
Nevėžis 3+ goals
58%

Draw no bet

Pakruojis (draw refunded)
11%
Nevėžis (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakruojis at home — creates 0.79, concedes 4.57 · 14 matches

Nevėžis away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.28 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakruojis attack 0.79 + Nevėžis defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.04

Nevėžis attack 1.57 + Pakruojis defence 4.57 → ÷2 → 3.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Pakruojis scores more
10%
level
13%
Nevėžis scores more
77%

Nevėžis at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pakruojis vs Nevėžis

Nevėžis beat Pakruojis 9-1 in 1 Lyga on July 26, 2019.

The match was played at Pakruojo miesto stadionas (Pakruojis).