Nevėžis 1–1 Pakruojis: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Nevėžis

FT

1 – 1

Pakruojis

3/29/2019

1 Lyga · Round 2Kėdainių miesto stadionas (Kėdainiai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nevėžis84%

×Draw10%

Pakruojis6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NevėžisExpected goals in this matchPakruojis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.81

1.06

Nevėžis

3.81

Pakruojis

1.06

Nevėžis creates 259% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 14 away

1.82

creates per match

1.00

1.12

allows per match

5.79

creates per match

Nevėžis

1.82

Pakruojis

1.00

allows per match

Nevėžis

1.12

Pakruojis

5.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nevėžis+0.00on par

Pakruojis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nevėžis ↓

Pakruojis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–18%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Nevėžis or draw

94%

Nevėžis or Pakruojis

90%

Draw or Pakruojis

16%

Winning margin

Nevėžis wins by 2+

68%

Pakruojis wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Nevėžis 1+ goals

98%

Nevėžis 2+ goals

88%

Nevėžis 3+ goals

71%

Pakruojis 1+ goals

65%

Pakruojis 2+ goals

29%

Pakruojis 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nevėžis (draw refunded)

93%

Pakruojis (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nevėžis at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.12 · 84 matches

Pakruojis away — creates 1.00, concedes 5.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nevėžis attack 1.82 + Pakruojis defence 5.79 → ÷2 → 3.81

Pakruojis attack 1.00 + Nevėžis defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Nevėžis scores more

84%

level

10%

Pakruojis scores more

6%

Nevėžis at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff