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Pakruojis vs Kupiškis — 1 Lyga 2026

Pakruojis
Pakruojis
FT
0 – 6
Kupiškis
Kupiškis
8/17/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 20Pakruojo miesto stadionas (Pakruojis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pakruojis13%
×Draw14%
Kupiškis74%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakruojis
1.40
Kupiškis
3.39

Kupiškis creates 142% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Pakruojis
0.79
Kupiškis
2.21

allows per match

Pakruojis
4.57
Kupiškis
2.00

finishing

Pakruojis+0.00on par
Kupiškis+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakruojis ↓

Kupiškis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Pakruojis or draw
26%
Pakruojis or Kupiškis
86%
Draw or Kupiškis
87%

Winning margin

Pakruojis wins by 2+
5%
Kupiškis wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

Pakruojis 1+ goals
75%
Pakruojis 2+ goals
41%
Pakruojis 3+ goals
17%
Kupiškis 1+ goals
96%
Kupiškis 2+ goals
84%
Kupiškis 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

Pakruojis (draw refunded)
15%
Kupiškis (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakruojis at home — creates 0.79, concedes 4.57 · 14 matches

Kupiškis away — creates 2.21, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakruojis attack 0.79 + Kupiškis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Kupiškis attack 2.21 + Pakruojis defence 4.57 → ÷2 → 3.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Pakruojis scores more
13%
level
14%
Kupiškis scores more
74%

Kupiškis at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Kupiškis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pakruojis vs Kupiškis

Kupiškis beat Pakruojis 6-0 in 1 Lyga on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Pakruojo miesto stadionas (Pakruojis).