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Kupiškis vs Pakruojis — 1 Lyga 2026

Kupiškis
Kupiškis
FT
2 – 3
Pakruojis
Pakruojis
4/24/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 5Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas (Panevėžys)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kupiškis74%
×Draw13%
Pakruojis13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kupiškis
3.54
Pakruojis
1.50

Kupiškis creates 136% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Kupiškis
1.29
Pakruojis
1.00

allows per match

Kupiškis
2.00
Pakruojis
5.79

finishing

Kupiškis+0.00on par
Pakruojis+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kupiškis ↓

Pakruojis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Kupiškis or draw
87%
Kupiškis or Pakruojis
87%
Draw or Pakruojis
26%

Winning margin

Kupiškis wins by 2+
56%
Pakruojis wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kupiškis 1+ goals
97%
Kupiškis 2+ goals
86%
Kupiškis 3+ goals
66%
Pakruojis 1+ goals
78%
Pakruojis 2+ goals
44%
Pakruojis 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kupiškis (draw refunded)
85%
Pakruojis (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kupiškis at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

Pakruojis away — creates 1.00, concedes 5.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kupiškis attack 1.29 + Pakruojis defence 5.79 → ÷2 → 3.54

Pakruojis attack 1.00 + Kupiškis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Kupiškis scores more
74%
level
13%
Pakruojis scores more
13%

Kupiškis at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Kupiškis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kupiškis vs Pakruojis

Pakruojis beat Kupiškis 3-2 in 1 Lyga on April 24, 2019.

The match was played at Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas (Panevėžys).