Pakhtakor 3–1 Surkhon: Result & Stats

Pakhtakor

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Surkhon

D. Ćeran 66'

D. Khamdamov 38'

S. Sabirkhodjaev 38'

O. Kasyan 24' (pen)

7/2/2020

Super League · Round 7Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Pakhtakor62%

×Draw22%

Surkhon16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PakhtakorExpected goals in this matchSurkhon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

0.84

Pakhtakor

1.91

Surkhon

0.84

Pakhtakor creates 127% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 97 away

2.20

creates per match

0.84

0.85

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Pakhtakor

2.20

Surkhon

0.84

allows per match

Pakhtakor

0.85

Surkhon

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Surkhon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Surkhon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw

84%

Pakhtakor or Surkhon

78%

Draw or Surkhon

38%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

37%

Surkhon wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

85%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

57%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

30%

Surkhon 1+ goals

57%

Surkhon 2+ goals

21%

Surkhon 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

80%

Surkhon (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.85 · 98 matches

Surkhon away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.62 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 2.20 + Surkhon defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.91

Surkhon attack 0.84 + Pakhtakor defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Pakhtakor scores more

62%

level

22%

Surkhon scores more

16%

Pakhtakor at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

O. KasyanPenalty

38'

D. Khamdamov

38'

S. Sabirkhodjaev

45'

Y. Krimets

56'

B. Shaydulov← R. Berdimurodov

56'

X. Gofurov← S. Salomov

66'

D. Ćeran

70'

Abror Ismailov← D. Ćeran

72'

S. Sulaymonov← S. Karimov

78'

A. Ibragimov← N. Khasanov

78'

M. Abdurahmonov← A. Gafurov

79'

I. Sergeev← E. Derdiyok

83'

A. Komilov← F. Sayfiyev

90+1'

A. Ibragimov

90+2'

A. Izmailov

Pakhtakor

Surkhon

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Ćeran

Manager: S. Arveladze

70'▲Abror Ismailov←▼D. Ćeran

79'▲I. Sergeev←▼E. Derdiyok

83'▲A. Komilov←▼F. Sayfiyev

Pakhtakor substitutes

IsmailovSergeevKomilovSobirjonovSidikovAbdullaevAzamovKuvvatovKozak

Manager: S. Abdukhujayev

56'▲B. Shaydulov←▼R. Berdimurodov

56'▲X. Gofurov←▼S. Salomov

72'▲S. Sulaymonov←▼S. Karimov

78'▲A. Ibragimov←▼N. Khasanov

78'▲M. Abdurahmonov←▼A. Gafurov

Surkhon substitutes

ShaydulovGofurovSulaymonovIbragimovAbdurahmonovDjabbarovAkhmedovNomozov