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Pakhtakor vs Surkhon — Super League 2026

Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
FT
3 – 1
Surkhon
Surkhon
I. Sergeev 70', 32'
D. Ceran 12'
S. Salomov 62'
10/31/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion (Toshkent (Tashkent))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Pakhtakor62%
×Draw22%
Surkhon16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakhtakor
1.91
Surkhon
0.84

Pakhtakor creates 127% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 97 away

creates per match

Pakhtakor
2.20
Surkhon
0.84

allows per match

Pakhtakor
0.85
Surkhon
1.62

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par
Surkhon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Surkhon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw
84%
Pakhtakor or Surkhon
78%
Draw or Surkhon
38%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+
37%
Surkhon wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals
85%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
57%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
30%
Surkhon 1+ goals
57%
Surkhon 2+ goals
21%
Surkhon 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
80%
Surkhon (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.85 · 98 matches

Surkhon away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.62 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 2.20 + Surkhon defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.91

Surkhon attack 0.84 + Pakhtakor defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Pakhtakor scores more
62%
level
22%
Surkhon scores more
16%

Pakhtakor at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
D. Ceran
32'
I. Sergeev
39'
M. Simic
55'
D. Stanojevic
62'
S. Salomov
70'
I. Sergeev
88'
O. Khamrobekov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Pakhtakor 3–1 Surkhon

Pakhtakor beat Surkhon 3-1 in Super League on October 31, 2019.

Goals: D. Ceran (12'), I. Sergeev (32', 70'), S. Salomov (62').

The match was played at Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion (Toshkent (Tashkent)).