Pakhtakor 3–0 Padideh Khorasan: Result & Stats

Pakhtakor

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Padideh Khorasan

2/17/2020

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pakhtakor62%

×Draw23%

Padideh Khorasan15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PakhtakorExpected goals in this matchPadideh Khorasan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.71

Pakhtakor

1.76

Padideh Khorasan

0.71

Pakhtakor creates 148% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 3 away

1.52

creates per match

0.00

1.43

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Pakhtakor

1.52

Padideh Khorasan

0.00

allows per match

Pakhtakor

1.43

Padideh Khorasan

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Padideh Khorasan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Padideh Khorasan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw

85%

Pakhtakor or Padideh Khorasan

77%

Draw or Padideh Khorasan

38%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

36%

Padideh Khorasan wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

83%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

52%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

26%

Padideh Khorasan 1+ goals

51%

Padideh Khorasan 2+ goals

16%

Padideh Khorasan 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

81%

Padideh Khorasan (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

Padideh Khorasan away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 1.52 + Padideh Khorasan defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.76

Padideh Khorasan attack 0.00 + Pakhtakor defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Pakhtakor scores more

62%

level

23%

Padideh Khorasan scores more

15%

Pakhtakor at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff