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Padideh Khorasan vs Pakhtakor — AFC Champions League 2018

Padideh Khorasan
Padideh Khorasan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
9/23/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6Al Janoub Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Padideh Khorasan37%
×Draw32%
Pakhtakor31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padideh Khorasan
1.01
Pakhtakor
0.89

Padideh Khorasan creates 13% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 23 away

creates per match

Padideh Khorasan
0.67
Pakhtakor
0.78

allows per match

Padideh Khorasan
1.00
Pakhtakor
1.35

finishing

Padideh Khorasan+0.00on par
Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padideh Khorasan ↓

Pakhtakor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Padideh Khorasan or draw
69%
Padideh Khorasan or Pakhtakor
68%
Draw or Pakhtakor
63%

Winning margin

Padideh Khorasan wins by 2+
14%
Pakhtakor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Padideh Khorasan 1+ goals
64%
Padideh Khorasan 2+ goals
27%
Padideh Khorasan 3+ goals
8%
Pakhtakor 1+ goals
59%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
22%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Padideh Khorasan (draw refunded)
55%
Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padideh Khorasan at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padideh Khorasan attack 0.67 + Pakhtakor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.01

Pakhtakor attack 0.78 + Padideh Khorasan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Padideh Khorasan scores more
37%
level
32%
Pakhtakor scores more
31%

Padideh Khorasan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Padideh Khorasan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Padideh Khorasan vs Pakhtakor

Pakhtakor beat Padideh Khorasan 1-0 in AFC Champions League on September 23, 2020.

The match was played at Al Janoub Stadium in Al Wakrah.