Pakhtakor 1–1 Lokomotiv: Result & Stats

Pakhtakor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lokomotiv

R. Turdimurodov 11'

S. Shodiboev 63'

7/17/2026

Super League · Round 12Pakhtakor Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Pakhtakor59%

×Draw22%

Lokomotiv19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PakhtakorExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.95

Pakhtakor

1.86

Lokomotiv

0.95

Pakhtakor creates 96% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 73 away

2.32

creates per match

1.05

0.84

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Pakhtakor

2.32

Lokomotiv

1.05

allows per match

Pakhtakor

0.84

Lokomotiv

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Lokomotiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw

81%

Pakhtakor or Lokomotiv

78%

Draw or Lokomotiv

41%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

34%

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

84%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

55%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

28%

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

61%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

25%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

76%

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.84 · 100 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 2.32 + Lokomotiv defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.86

Lokomotiv attack 1.05 + Pakhtakor defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Pakhtakor scores more

59%

level

22%

Lokomotiv scores more

19%

Pakhtakor at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

K. Abraev

11'

R. Turdimurodov

46'

S. Chinedu← R. Turdimurodov

46'

Flamarion← I. Ibrokhimov

57'

O. Zoteev

60'

S. Shodiboev← K. Abraev

60'

D. Turopov← M. Reimov

61'

D. Khamdamov← O. Bozorov

61'

B. Resan← K. Erkinov

63'

S. Shodiboev↳ S. Nurulloev

76'

A. Mozgovoy← S. Sobirkhuzhaev

76'

J. Yakhshiboev← S. Nurulloev

86'

N. Ibraimov← S. Mirzaev

86'

90+2'

90+3'

90+4'

Pakhtakor

Lokomotiv

1

33

26

15

28

70

▼

Reimov

7

▼

Abraev

17

▼

Mirzaev

45

▼

Nisic

9

A

▼

11

35

4

5

7

24

27

▼

Sobirkhuz

9

▼

Ibrokhimo

23

Buriev

15

▼

Erkinov

14

⚽

▼

Turdimuro

77

▼

Bozorov

Manager: Kamoliddin Tadzhiev

46'▲S. Chinedu←▼R. Turdimurodov

46'▲Flamarion←▼I. Ibrokhimov

61'▲D. Khamdamov←▼O. Bozorov

61'▲B. Resan←▼K. Erkinov

76'▲A. Mozgovoy←▼S. Sobirkhuzhaev

Pakhtakor substitutes

34Nasrullaev20Abdullaev10Mozgovoy90Chinedu12Nazarov55Abdumazhidov17Khamdamov21Resan50Flamarion

Manager: Mirko Jelicic

60'▲S. Shodiboev←▼K. Abraev

60'▲D. Turopov←▼M. Reimov

76'▲J. Yakhshiboev←▼S. Nurulloev

86'▲N. Ibraimov←▼S. Mirzaev

86'▲N. Ivanov←▼J. Nisic

Lokomotiv substitutes

5Ismoilov12Shevchenko22Poyonov61Ibraimov8Tupliev14Ivanov25Yakhshiboev10Shodiboev23Turopov