Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lokomotiv vs Pakhtakor — Super League 2026

Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
3/14/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Lokomotiv28%
×Draw26%
Pakhtakor46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv
1.10
Pakhtakor
1.50

Pakhtakor creates 36% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 100 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv
1.34
Pakhtakor
1.85

allows per match

Lokomotiv
1.16
Pakhtakor
0.87

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par
Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Pakhtakor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw
54%
Lokomotiv or Pakhtakor
74%
Draw or Pakhtakor
72%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+
11%
Pakhtakor wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals
67%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
30%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
10%
Pakhtakor 1+ goals
78%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
44%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
37%
Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.16 · 70 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.87 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 1.34 + Pakhtakor defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.10

Pakhtakor attack 1.85 + Lokomotiv defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lokomotiv scores more
28%
level
26%
Pakhtakor scores more
46%

Pakhtakor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Lokomotiv 3–0 Pakhtakor

Lokomotiv beat Pakhtakor 3-0 in Super League on March 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Tashkent.