Pakhtakor 4–2 Dinamo Samarqand: Result & Stats

Pakhtakor

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Dinamo Samarqand

D. Kholmatov 90+5'

D. Ćeran 72' (pen), 42' (pen), 9'

D. Mijić 55'

Maykon Douglas 18'

10/6/2024

Super League · Round 21Stadion Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Pakhtakor59%

×Draw22%

Dinamo Samarqand19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PakhtakorExpected goals in this matchDinamo Samarqand

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.04

Pakhtakor

1.98

Dinamo Samarqand

1.04

Pakhtakor creates 90% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 62 away

2.23

creates per match

1.23

0.86

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Pakhtakor

2.23

Dinamo Samarqand

1.23

allows per match

Pakhtakor

0.86

Dinamo Samarqand

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Dinamo Samarqand →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw

81%

Pakhtakor or Dinamo Samarqand

78%

Draw or Dinamo Samarqand

41%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

35%

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

86%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

59%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

31%

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals

65%

Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals

28%

Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

75%

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.86 · 97 matches

Dinamo Samarqand away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.74 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 2.23 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.98

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.23 + Pakhtakor defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Pakhtakor scores more

59%

level

22%

Dinamo Samarqand scores more

19%

Pakhtakor at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

D. Ćeran

18'

Maykon Douglas

20'

D. Khamdamov

34'

D. CeranGoal Disallowed - Foul

42'

D. ĆeranPenalty

46'

K. Khalilov← Marcos Kayck

46'

V. Oqbutayev← M. Tursunov

50'

U. Adkhamzoda

55'

D. Mijić

64'

U. Khoshimov← D. Khamdamov

69'

B. Nasimov← F. Narh

72'

D. ĆeranPenalty

74'

B. Askarov← U. Adhamzoda

74'

P. Kholdorkhonov← O. Joraqoziyev

79'

K. Iminov← A. Hojimirzaev

79'

S. Shaakhmedov← D. Mijić

90+4'

D. Ortiqboyev← S. Sobirkhojaev

90+4'

M. O'rinboyev← D. Ćeran

90+5'

D. Kholmatov

Pakhtakor

Dinamo

Yagudin

Mustafoye

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽3

▼

Ćeran

▼

Jo'raqo'z

Manager: M. Shatskikh

64'▲U. Khoshimov←▼D. Khamdamov

74'▲B. Askarov←▼U. Adhamzoda

74'▲P. Kholdorkhonov←▼O. Joraqoziyev

90+4'▲D. Ortiqboyev←▼S. Sobirkhojaev

90+4'▲M. O'rinboyev←▼D. Ćeran

Pakhtakor substitutes

KhoshimovAskarovKholdorkhonovOrtiqboyevO'rinboyevSaitovAbdumajidovUsmonovPavlyuchenko

Manager: V. Abramov

46'▲K. Khalilov←▼Marcos Kayck

46'▲V. Oqbutayev←▼M. Tursunov

69'▲B. Nasimov←▼F. Narh

79'▲K. Iminov←▼A. Hojimirzaev

79'▲S. Shaakhmedov←▼D. Mijić

Dinamo Samarqand substitutes

KhalilovOqbutayevNasimovIminovShaakhmedovMuydinovRakhmatullaevRahmatov

Super League: Pakhtakor 4–2 Dinamo Samarqand

Pakhtakor beat Dinamo Samarqand 4-2 in Super League on October 6, 2024.

Goals: D. Ćeran (9', 42' pen, 72' pen), Maykon Douglas (18'), D. Mijić (55'), D. Kholmatov (90+5').

The match was played at Stadion Majmuasi in Tashkent.

Pakhtakor vs Dinamo Samarqand — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Pakhtakor 4–2 Dinamo Samarqand