Dinamo Samarqand 1–1 Pakhtakor: Result & Stats

Dinamo Samarqand

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Pakhtakor

R. Friday 19'

B. Abdikholikov 85'

8/11/2025

Super League · Round 18Dinamo Samarkand Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Dinamo Samarqand26%

×Draw25%

Pakhtakor49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo SamarqandExpected goals in this matchPakhtakor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.57

Dinamo Samarqand

1.07

Pakhtakor

1.57

Pakhtakor creates 47% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 99 away

1.27

creates per match

1.85

1.29

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Dinamo Samarqand

1.27

Pakhtakor

1.85

allows per match

Dinamo Samarqand

1.29

Pakhtakor

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Samarqand ↓

Pakhtakor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dinamo Samarqand or draw

51%

Dinamo Samarqand or Pakhtakor

75%

Draw or Pakhtakor

74%

Winning margin

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+

10%

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals

66%

Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals

29%

Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals

9%

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

79%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

46%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)

35%

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Samarqand at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.88 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.27 + Pakhtakor defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.07

Pakhtakor attack 1.85 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dinamo Samarqand scores more

26%

level

25%

Pakhtakor scores more

49%

Pakhtakor at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

J. Urozov

9'

K. Alizhonov

19'

R. Friday↳ J. Abdusalomov

41'

A. Turgunboev

51'

F. Abdurakhmonov← U. Hoshimov

62'

I. Ibrokhimov← S. Sobirkhuzhaev

67'

O. Urmonjonov← R. Friday

67'

B. Oblakulov← A. Khozhimirzaev

72'

K. Erkinov← Flamarion

72'

D. Kholmatov← B. Resan

82'

D. Khamdamov← B. Riascos

82'

B. Abdikholikov← I. Sergeev

85'

90'

90'

90+11'

90+3'

M. Stanojevic← J. Abdusalomov

90+3'

M. Mirakhmadov← D. Pletnev

Dinamo

Pakhtakor

19

23

55

4

21

▼

Resan

10

Turgunboe

27

▼

Sobirkhuz

7

Alizhonov

94

▼

Riascos

11

▼

Sergeev

50

▼

13

8

6

18

20

21

A

▼

Abdusalom

7

Ratinho

55

▼

Pletnev

10

▼

Khozhimir

99

▼

Hoshimov

16

⚽

▼

Friday

51'▲F. Abdurakhmonov←▼U. Hoshimov

67'▲O. Urmonjonov←▼R. Friday

67'▲B. Oblakulov←▼A. Khozhimirzaev

90+3'▲M. Stanojevic←▼J. Abdusalomov

90+3'▲M. Mirakhmadov←▼D. Pletnev

Dinamo Samarqand substitutes

27Nemanov25Urmonjonov88Stanojevic14Nasimov9Mirakhmadov22Abdullaev11Khalilov37Abdurakhmonov23Oblakulov

62'▲I. Ibrokhimov←▼S. Sobirkhuzhaev

72'▲K. Erkinov←▼Flamarion

72'▲D. Kholmatov←▼B. Resan

82'▲D. Khamdamov←▼B. Riascos

82'▲B. Abdikholikov←▼I. Sergeev

Pakhtakor substitutes

15Erkinov8Kholmatov17Khamdamov77Saitov12Nazarov9Ibrokhimov2Askarov5Khamraliev18Abdikholikov

Match Recap: Dinamo Samarqand vs Pakhtakor

Dinamo Samarqand and Pakhtakor drew 1-1 in Super League on August 11, 2025.

Goals: R. Friday (19'), B. Abdikholikov (85').

The match was played at Dinamo Samarkand Stadium in Samarkand.

Dinamo Samarqand vs Pakhtakor — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dinamo Samarqand vs Pakhtakor