Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pakhtakor vs Al Ain — AFC Champions League 2018

Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Ain
Al Ain
12/3/2024AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Stage - 6Stadion Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Pakhtakor47%
×Draw24%
Al Ain29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakhtakor
1.67
Al Ain
1.28

Pakhtakor creates 30% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

Pakhtakor
1.52
Al Ain
1.14

allows per match

Pakhtakor
1.43
Al Ain
1.81

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par
Al Ain+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Al Ain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw
71%
Pakhtakor or Al Ain
76%
Draw or Al Ain
53%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+
24%
Al Ain wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals
81%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
50%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
23%
Al Ain 1+ goals
72%
Al Ain 2+ goals
37%
Al Ain 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
61%
Al Ain (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

Al Ain away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 1.52 + Al Ain defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.67

Al Ain attack 1.14 + Pakhtakor defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pakhtakor scores more
47%
level
24%
Al Ain scores more
29%

Pakhtakor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pakhtakor vs Al Ain

Pakhtakor and Al Ain drew 1-1 in AFC Champions League on December 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Majmuasi in Tashkent.