Al Ain 1–3 Pakhtakor: Result & Stats

Al Ain

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Pakhtakor

Eisa Khalfan 18'

D. Ćeran 78'

H. Erkinov 62', 55'

11/28/2023

AFC Champions League · Group A - 5Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Al Ain45%

×Draw25%

Pakhtakor30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al AinExpected goals in this matchPakhtakor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.27

Al Ain

1.60

Pakhtakor

1.27

Al Ain creates 26% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

1.84

creates per match

0.78

1.76

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Al Ain

1.84

Pakhtakor

0.78

allows per match

Al Ain

1.76

Pakhtakor

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ain+0.00on par

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ain ↓

Pakhtakor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Al Ain or draw

70%

Al Ain or Pakhtakor

75%

Draw or Pakhtakor

55%

Winning margin

Al Ain wins by 2+

23%

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Al Ain 1+ goals

80%

Al Ain 2+ goals

47%

Al Ain 3+ goals

22%

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

72%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

36%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Al Ain (draw refunded)

60%

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ain at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ain attack 1.84 + Pakhtakor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.60

Pakhtakor attack 0.78 + Al Ain defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Ain scores more

45%

level

25%

Pakhtakor scores more

30%

Al Ain at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Ain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Ćeran

Pakhtakor · F

9.0

Match Events

9'

Shakhzod Azmiddinov

18'

Eisa Khalfan↳ Bandar Al Ahbabi

19'

Mansour Alshamsi

45+3'

Bekhruz Askarov

55'

H. Erkinov↳ D. Ćeran

62'

J. Loulendo← Eisa Khalfan

62'

M. Palacios← Sultan Al Shamsi

62'

H. Erkinov↳ D. Ćeran

67'

Khalid Al Hashemi← Mansour Saeed

69'

Josna Loulendo

78'

D. Ćeran↳ D. Kholmatov

81'

Hazem Mohammad← Mohammed Al Baloushi

81'

Falah Waleed← A. Traoré

87'

D. Khamdamov← H. Erkinov

90'

P. Kholdorkhonov← S. Azmiddinov

90'

M. O'rinboyev← A. Turgunboyev

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlPakhtakor

Overview

40%Possession60%

9Total Shots16

2Corners4

16Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots16

5On Target6

4Off Target6

0Blocked4

6Inside Box10

3Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

329Total Passes500

254Accurate Passes416

77%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2