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Paju Citizen vs Gyeongnam FC — K League 2 2026

Paju Citizen
Paju Citizen
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Gyeongnam FC
Gyeongnam FC
4/25/2026K League 2K League 2 · Round 9Paju Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Paju Citizen36%
×Draw27%
Gyeongnam FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paju Citizen
1.23
Gyeongnam FC
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 116 away

creates per match

Paju Citizen
1.00
Gyeongnam FC
1.20

allows per match

Paju Citizen
1.25
Gyeongnam FC
1.46

finishing

Paju Citizen+0.00on par
Gyeongnam FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paju Citizen ↓

Gyeongnam FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Paju Citizen or draw
64%
Paju Citizen or Gyeongnam FC
73%
Draw or Gyeongnam FC
64%

Winning margin

Paju Citizen wins by 2+
16%
Gyeongnam FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Paju Citizen 1+ goals
71%
Paju Citizen 2+ goals
35%
Paju Citizen 3+ goals
13%
Gyeongnam FC 1+ goals
71%
Gyeongnam FC 2+ goals
35%
Gyeongnam FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Paju Citizen (draw refunded)
50%
Gyeongnam FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paju Citizen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Gyeongnam FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.46 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paju Citizen attack 1.00 + Gyeongnam FC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Gyeongnam FC attack 1.20 + Paju Citizen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Paju Citizen scores more
36%
level
27%
Gyeongnam FC scores more
36%

Paju Citizen at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Paju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 2: Paju Citizen 2–3 Gyeongnam FC

Gyeongnam FC beat Paju Citizen 3-2 in K League 2 on April 25, 2026.

The match was played at Paju Stadium in Paju.