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Paju Citizen vs Gyeongnam FC — FA Cup 2019

Paju Citizen
Paju Citizen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gyeongnam FC
Gyeongnam FC
3/23/2024FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundPaju Public Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Paju Citizen67%
×Draw20%
Gyeongnam FC13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paju Citizen
2.06
Gyeongnam FC
0.77

Paju Citizen creates 168% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Paju Citizen
2.29
Gyeongnam FC
0.67

allows per match

Paju Citizen
0.86
Gyeongnam FC
1.83

finishing

Paju Citizen+0.00on par
Gyeongnam FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paju Citizen ↓

Gyeongnam FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Paju Citizen or draw
87%
Paju Citizen or Gyeongnam FC
80%
Draw or Gyeongnam FC
33%

Winning margin

Paju Citizen wins by 2+
42%
Gyeongnam FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Paju Citizen 1+ goals
87%
Paju Citizen 2+ goals
61%
Paju Citizen 3+ goals
34%
Gyeongnam FC 1+ goals
54%
Gyeongnam FC 2+ goals
18%
Gyeongnam FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Paju Citizen (draw refunded)
84%
Gyeongnam FC (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paju Citizen at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Gyeongnam FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paju Citizen attack 2.29 + Gyeongnam FC defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.06

Gyeongnam FC attack 0.67 + Paju Citizen defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Paju Citizen scores more
67%
level
20%
Gyeongnam FC scores more
13%

Paju Citizen at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Paju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Paju Citizen 0–1 Gyeongnam FC

Gyeongnam FC beat Paju Citizen 1-0 in FA Cup on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Paju Public Stadium in Paju.