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Paju Citizen vs Gimhae City — K3 League 2026

Paju Citizen
Paju Citizen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Gimhae City
Gimhae City
6/24/2023K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 16Paju Public Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Paju Citizen34%
×Draw29%
Gimhae City37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paju Citizen
1.07
Gimhae City
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 99 away

creates per match

Paju Citizen
1.22
Gimhae City
1.29

allows per match

Paju Citizen
0.98
Gimhae City
0.93

finishing

Paju Citizen+0.00on par
Gimhae City+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paju Citizen ↓

Gimhae City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Paju Citizen or draw
63%
Paju Citizen or Gimhae City
71%
Draw or Gimhae City
66%

Winning margin

Paju Citizen wins by 2+
13%
Gimhae City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Paju Citizen 1+ goals
66%
Paju Citizen 2+ goals
29%
Paju Citizen 3+ goals
9%
Gimhae City 1+ goals
68%
Gimhae City 2+ goals
32%
Gimhae City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Paju Citizen (draw refunded)
48%
Gimhae City (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paju Citizen at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

Gimhae City away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.93 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paju Citizen attack 1.22 + Gimhae City defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.07

Gimhae City attack 1.29 + Paju Citizen defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Paju Citizen scores more
34%
level
29%
Gimhae City scores more
37%

Gimhae City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gimhae City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K3 League: Paju Citizen 1–2 Gimhae City

Gimhae City beat Paju Citizen 2-1 in K3 League on June 24, 2023.

The match was played at Paju Public Stadium in Paju.