Gimhae City 2–0 Paju Citizen: Result & Stats

Gimhae City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Paju Citizen

Yoo Sun-Woo 59'

Lee Sung-Yoon 4'

8/23/2025

K3 League · Round 21Gimhae Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Gimhae City44%

×Draw28%

Paju Citizen28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimhae CityExpected goals in this matchPaju Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.01

Gimhae City

1.34

Paju Citizen

1.01

Gimhae City creates 33% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 59 away

1.55

creates per match

1.10

0.91

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Gimhae City

1.55

Paju Citizen

1.10

allows per match

Gimhae City

0.91

Paju Citizen

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimhae City+0.00on par

Paju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimhae City ↓

Paju Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Gimhae City or draw

72%

Gimhae City or Paju Citizen

72%

Draw or Paju Citizen

56%

Winning margin

Gimhae City wins by 2+

21%

Paju Citizen wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gimhae City 1+ goals

74%

Gimhae City 2+ goals

39%

Gimhae City 3+ goals

15%

Paju Citizen 1+ goals

64%

Paju Citizen 2+ goals

27%

Paju Citizen 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Gimhae City (draw refunded)

61%

Paju Citizen (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimhae City at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.91 · 104 matches

Paju Citizen away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimhae City attack 1.55 + Paju Citizen defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.34

Paju Citizen attack 1.10 + Gimhae City defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gimhae City scores more

44%

level

28%

Paju Citizen scores more

28%

Gimhae City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gimhae City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Lee Sung-Yoon

59'

Yoo Sun-Woo

Gimhae

Paju

Manager: Son Hyun-Joon

Manager: Lee Eun-No