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Paju Citizen vs Daejeon Korail — K3 League 2026

Paju Citizen
Paju Citizen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Daejeon Korail
Daejeon Korail
5/20/2023K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 11Paju Public Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Paju Citizen40%
×Draw27%
Daejeon Korail32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paju Citizen
1.29
Daejeon Korail
1.13

Paju Citizen creates 14% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 111 away

creates per match

Paju Citizen
1.22
Daejeon Korail
1.27

allows per match

Paju Citizen
0.98
Daejeon Korail
1.36

finishing

Paju Citizen+0.00on par
Daejeon Korail+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paju Citizen ↓

Daejeon Korail →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Paju Citizen or draw
68%
Paju Citizen or Daejeon Korail
73%
Draw or Daejeon Korail
60%

Winning margin

Paju Citizen wins by 2+
18%
Daejeon Korail wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Paju Citizen 1+ goals
72%
Paju Citizen 2+ goals
37%
Paju Citizen 3+ goals
14%
Daejeon Korail 1+ goals
68%
Daejeon Korail 2+ goals
31%
Daejeon Korail 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Paju Citizen (draw refunded)
55%
Daejeon Korail (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paju Citizen at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

Daejeon Korail away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paju Citizen attack 1.22 + Daejeon Korail defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Daejeon Korail attack 1.27 + Paju Citizen defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Paju Citizen scores more
40%
level
27%
Daejeon Korail scores more
32%

Paju Citizen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Paju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K3 League: Paju Citizen 1–0 Daejeon Korail

Paju Citizen beat Daejeon Korail 1-0 in K3 League on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Paju Public Stadium in Paju.