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Daejeon Korail vs Paju Citizen — K3 League 2026

Daejeon Korail
Daejeon Korail
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Paju Citizen
Paju Citizen
4/20/2025K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 5Daejeon World Cup Secondary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Daejeon Korail41%
×Draw29%
Paju Citizen30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daejeon Korail
1.22
Paju Citizen
1.00

Daejeon Korail creates 22% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 59 away

creates per match

Daejeon Korail
1.30
Paju Citizen
1.10

allows per match

Daejeon Korail
0.90
Paju Citizen
1.14

finishing

Daejeon Korail+0.00on par
Paju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daejeon Korail ↓

Paju Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Daejeon Korail or draw
70%
Daejeon Korail or Paju Citizen
71%
Draw or Paju Citizen
59%

Winning margin

Daejeon Korail wins by 2+
18%
Paju Citizen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Daejeon Korail 1+ goals
70%
Daejeon Korail 2+ goals
34%
Daejeon Korail 3+ goals
12%
Paju Citizen 1+ goals
63%
Paju Citizen 2+ goals
26%
Paju Citizen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Daejeon Korail (draw refunded)
58%
Paju Citizen (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daejeon Korail at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.90 · 105 matches

Paju Citizen away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daejeon Korail attack 1.30 + Paju Citizen defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.22

Paju Citizen attack 1.10 + Daejeon Korail defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Daejeon Korail scores more
41%
level
29%
Paju Citizen scores more
30%

Daejeon Korail at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Daejeon Korail will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K3 League: Daejeon Korail 2–0 Paju Citizen

Daejeon Korail beat Paju Citizen 2-0 in K3 League on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Daejeon World Cup Secondary Stadium in Daejeon.