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Paju Citizen vs Changwon City — K3 League 2026

Paju Citizen
Paju Citizen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Changwon City
Changwon City
8/19/2023K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 22Paju Public Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Paju Citizen40%
×Draw29%
Changwon City31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paju Citizen
1.17
Changwon City
1.00

Paju Citizen creates 17% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 104 away

creates per match

Paju Citizen
1.22
Changwon City
1.02

allows per match

Paju Citizen
0.98
Changwon City
1.13

finishing

Paju Citizen+0.00on par
Changwon City+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paju Citizen ↓

Changwon City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Paju Citizen or draw
69%
Paju Citizen or Changwon City
71%
Draw or Changwon City
60%

Winning margin

Paju Citizen wins by 2+
17%
Changwon City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Paju Citizen 1+ goals
69%
Paju Citizen 2+ goals
33%
Paju Citizen 3+ goals
11%
Changwon City 1+ goals
63%
Changwon City 2+ goals
26%
Changwon City 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Paju Citizen (draw refunded)
56%
Changwon City (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paju Citizen at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

Changwon City away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.13 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paju Citizen attack 1.22 + Changwon City defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Changwon City attack 1.02 + Paju Citizen defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Paju Citizen scores more
40%
level
29%
Changwon City scores more
31%

Paju Citizen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Paju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paju Citizen vs Changwon City

Changwon City beat Paju Citizen 2-1 in K3 League on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Paju Public Stadium in Paju.