Changwon City 0–0 Paju Citizen: Result & Stats

Changwon City

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Paju Citizen

4/21/2023

K3 League · Round 7Changwon Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Changwon City37%

×Draw29%

Paju Citizen34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Changwon CityExpected goals in this matchPaju Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.07

Changwon City

1.13

Paju Citizen

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 59 away

1.13

creates per match

1.10

1.04

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Changwon City

1.13

Paju Citizen

1.10

allows per match

Changwon City

1.04

Paju Citizen

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Changwon City+0.00on par

Paju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changwon City ↓

Paju Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Changwon City or draw

66%

Changwon City or Paju Citizen

71%

Draw or Paju Citizen

63%

Winning margin

Changwon City wins by 2+

15%

Paju Citizen wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Changwon City 1+ goals

68%

Changwon City 2+ goals

31%

Changwon City 3+ goals

11%

Paju Citizen 1+ goals

66%

Paju Citizen 2+ goals

29%

Paju Citizen 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Changwon City (draw refunded)

52%

Paju Citizen (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changwon City at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.04 · 112 matches

Paju Citizen away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changwon City attack 1.13 + Paju Citizen defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Paju Citizen attack 1.10 + Changwon City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Changwon City scores more

37%

level

29%

Paju Citizen scores more

34%

Changwon City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Changwon City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff