Paiosaco 1–0 Ourense CF: Result & Stats

Paiosaco

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ourense CF

6/20/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 12Campo Porta Santa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Paiosaco26%

×Draw28%

Ourense CF46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaiosacoExpected goals in this matchOurense CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.35

Paiosaco

0.95

Ourense CF

1.35

Ourense CF creates 42% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 47 away

0.87

creates per match

1.47

1.23

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Paiosaco

0.87

Ourense CF

1.47

allows per match

Paiosaco

1.23

Ourense CF

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paiosaco+0.00on par

Ourense CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paiosaco ↓

Ourense CF →

0–010%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Paiosaco or draw

54%

Paiosaco or Ourense CF

72%

Draw or Ourense CF

74%

Winning margin

Paiosaco wins by 2+

Ourense CF wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Paiosaco 1+ goals

61%

Paiosaco 2+ goals

25%

Paiosaco 3+ goals

Ourense CF 1+ goals

74%

Ourense CF 2+ goals

39%

Ourense CF 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Paiosaco (draw refunded)

36%

Ourense CF (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Paiosaco at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.23 · 62 matches

Ourense CF away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.02 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Paiosaco attack 0.87 + Ourense CF defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.95

Ourense CF attack 1.47 + Paiosaco defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Paiosaco scores more

26%

level

28%

Ourense CF scores more

46%

Ourense CF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff