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Ourense CF vs Paiosaco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ourense CF
Ourense CF
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Paiosaco
Paiosaco
11/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ourense CF60%
×Draw22%
Paiosaco18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ourense CF
1.87
Paiosaco
0.90

Ourense CF creates 108% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 63 away

creates per match

Ourense CF
1.87
Paiosaco
0.97

allows per match

Ourense CF
0.83
Paiosaco
1.86

finishing

Ourense CF+0.00on par
Paiosaco+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ourense CF ↓

Paiosaco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ourense CF or draw
82%
Ourense CF or Paiosaco
78%
Draw or Paiosaco
40%

Winning margin

Ourense CF wins by 2+
35%
Paiosaco wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ourense CF 1+ goals
85%
Ourense CF 2+ goals
56%
Ourense CF 3+ goals
29%
Paiosaco 1+ goals
59%
Paiosaco 2+ goals
23%
Paiosaco 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ourense CF (draw refunded)
77%
Paiosaco (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ourense CF at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

Paiosaco away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ourense CF attack 1.87 + Paiosaco defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.87

Paiosaco attack 0.97 + Ourense CF defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ourense CF scores more
60%
level
22%
Paiosaco scores more
18%

Ourense CF at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Ourense CF 2–0 Paiosaco

Ourense CF beat Paiosaco 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio O Couto in Ourense.