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Paiosaco vs Atlético Arteixo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Paiosaco
Paiosaco
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Arteixo
Atlético Arteixo
11/19/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Campo Porta Santa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Paiosaco33%
×Draw28%
Atlético Arteixo39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paiosaco
1.11
Atlético Arteixo
1.23

Atlético Arteixo creates 11% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 67 away

creates per match

Paiosaco
0.87
Atlético Arteixo
1.22

allows per match

Paiosaco
1.23
Atlético Arteixo
1.36

finishing

Paiosaco+0.00on par
Atlético Arteixo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paiosaco ↓

Atlético Arteixo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Paiosaco or draw
61%
Paiosaco or Atlético Arteixo
72%
Draw or Atlético Arteixo
67%

Winning margin

Paiosaco wins by 2+
13%
Atlético Arteixo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Paiosaco 1+ goals
67%
Paiosaco 2+ goals
30%
Paiosaco 3+ goals
10%
Atlético Arteixo 1+ goals
71%
Atlético Arteixo 2+ goals
35%
Atlético Arteixo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Paiosaco (draw refunded)
46%
Atlético Arteixo (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paiosaco at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.23 · 62 matches

Atlético Arteixo away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paiosaco attack 0.87 + Atlético Arteixo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.11

Atlético Arteixo attack 1.22 + Paiosaco defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Paiosaco scores more
33%
level
28%
Atlético Arteixo scores more
39%

Atlético Arteixo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlético Arteixo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Paiosaco 1–2 Atlético Arteixo

Atlético Arteixo beat Paiosaco 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Porta Santa in A Laracha.