Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atlético Arteixo vs Paiosaco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Arteixo
Atlético Arteixo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Paiosaco
Paiosaco
3/11/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Estadio Municipal Arteixo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Atlético Arteixo51%
×Draw24%
Paiosaco24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Arteixo
1.66
Paiosaco
1.06

Atlético Arteixo creates 57% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 63 away

creates per match

Atlético Arteixo
1.46
Paiosaco
0.97

allows per match

Atlético Arteixo
1.15
Paiosaco
1.86

finishing

Atlético Arteixo+0.00on par
Paiosaco+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Arteixo ↓

Paiosaco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atlético Arteixo or draw
76%
Atlético Arteixo or Paiosaco
76%
Draw or Paiosaco
49%

Winning margin

Atlético Arteixo wins by 2+
27%
Paiosaco wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlético Arteixo 1+ goals
81%
Atlético Arteixo 2+ goals
49%
Atlético Arteixo 3+ goals
23%
Paiosaco 1+ goals
65%
Paiosaco 2+ goals
29%
Paiosaco 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atlético Arteixo (draw refunded)
68%
Paiosaco (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Arteixo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 67 matches

Paiosaco away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Arteixo attack 1.46 + Paiosaco defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.66

Paiosaco attack 0.97 + Atlético Arteixo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atlético Arteixo scores more
51%
level
24%
Paiosaco scores more
24%

Atlético Arteixo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atlético Arteixo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Atlético Arteixo 1–2 Paiosaco

Paiosaco beat Atlético Arteixo 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Arteixo in Arteixo.