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Paide vs Vaprus — Cup 2020

Paide
Paideadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vaprus
Vaprus
5/6/2026CupCup · Semi-finalsPaide linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Paide86%
×Draw8%
Vaprus6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paide
4.42
Vaprus
1.21

Paide creates 265% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Paide
7.23
Vaprus
1.80

allows per match

Paide
0.62
Vaprus
1.60

finishing

Paide+0.00on par
Vaprus+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide ↓

Vaprus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–12%
1–21%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 65% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Paide or draw
94%
Paide or Vaprus
92%
Draw or Vaprus
14%

Winning margin

Paide wins by 2+
72%
Vaprus wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Paide 1+ goals
99%
Paide 2+ goals
92%
Paide 3+ goals
78%
Vaprus 1+ goals
70%
Vaprus 2+ goals
34%
Vaprus 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Paide (draw refunded)
94%
Vaprus (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide at home — creates 7.23, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Vaprus away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide attack 7.23 + Vaprus defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 4.42

Vaprus attack 1.80 + Paide defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Paide scores more
86%
level
8%
Vaprus scores more
6%

Paide at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Paide will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Paide 2–0 Vaprus

Paide beat Vaprus 2-0 in Cup on May 6, 2026.

The match was played at Paide linnastaadion in Paide.