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Paide vs Vaprus — Meistriliiga 2026

Paide
Paide
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vaprus
Vaprus
11/2/2025MeistriliigaMeistriliiga · Round 35Paide linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Paide60%
×Draw21%
Vaprus19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paide
2.01
Vaprus
1.02

Paide creates 97% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 96 away

creates per match

Paide
2.19
Vaprus
1.03

allows per match

Paide
1.01
Vaprus
1.83

finishing

Paide+0.00on par
Vaprus+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide ↓

Vaprus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Paide or draw
81%
Paide or Vaprus
79%
Draw or Vaprus
40%

Winning margin

Paide wins by 2+
36%
Vaprus wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Paide 1+ goals
87%
Paide 2+ goals
59%
Paide 3+ goals
32%
Vaprus 1+ goals
64%
Vaprus 2+ goals
27%
Vaprus 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Paide (draw refunded)
76%
Vaprus (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.01 · 131 matches

Vaprus away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.83 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide attack 2.19 + Vaprus defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.01

Vaprus attack 1.03 + Paide defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Paide scores more
60%
level
21%
Vaprus scores more
19%

Paide at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Paide will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paide 3 – 0 Vaprus

Paide beat Vaprus 3-0 in Meistriliiga on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Paide linnastaadion in Paide.