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Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn — Meistriliiga 2026

Paide
Paide
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
7/4/2025MeistriliigaMeistriliiga · Round 19Paide linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Paide37%
×Draw24%
FC Levadia Tallinn40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paide
1.55
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 131 home / 129 away

creates per match

Paide
2.19
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.22

allows per match

Paide
1.01
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.91

finishing

Paide+0.00on par
FC Levadia Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide ↓

FC Levadia Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Paide or draw
60%
Paide or FC Levadia Tallinn
76%
Draw or FC Levadia Tallinn
63%

Winning margin

Paide wins by 2+
18%
FC Levadia Tallinn wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Paide 1+ goals
79%
Paide 2+ goals
46%
Paide 3+ goals
20%
FC Levadia Tallinn 1+ goals
80%
FC Levadia Tallinn 2+ goals
48%
FC Levadia Tallinn 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Paide (draw refunded)
48%
FC Levadia Tallinn (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.01 · 131 matches

FC Levadia Tallinn away — creates 2.22, concedes 0.91 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide attack 2.19 + FC Levadia Tallinn defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.55

FC Levadia Tallinn attack 2.22 + Paide defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Paide scores more
37%
level
24%
FC Levadia Tallinn scores more
40%

FC Levadia Tallinn at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Levadia Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn

FC Levadia Tallinn beat Paide 3-0 in Meistriliiga on July 4, 2025.

The match was played at Paide linnastaadion in Paide.