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FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide — Meistriliiga 2026

FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Paide
Paide
5/11/2025MeistriliigaMeistriliiga · Round 12A. Le Coq Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

FC Levadia Tallinn48%
×Draw23%
Paide29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Levadia Tallinn
1.77
Paide
1.33

FC Levadia Tallinn creates 33% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 130 away

creates per match

FC Levadia Tallinn
2.46
Paide
1.83

allows per match

FC Levadia Tallinn
0.83
Paide
1.08

finishing

FC Levadia Tallinn+0.00on par
Paide+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Levadia Tallinn ↓

Paide →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Levadia Tallinn or draw
71%
FC Levadia Tallinn or Paide
77%
Draw or Paide
52%

Winning margin

FC Levadia Tallinn wins by 2+
26%
Paide wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Levadia Tallinn 1+ goals
83%
FC Levadia Tallinn 2+ goals
53%
FC Levadia Tallinn 3+ goals
26%
Paide 1+ goals
74%
Paide 2+ goals
38%
Paide 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Levadia Tallinn (draw refunded)
62%
Paide (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Levadia Tallinn at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.83 · 131 matches

Paide away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Levadia Tallinn attack 2.46 + Paide defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.77

Paide attack 1.83 + FC Levadia Tallinn defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Levadia Tallinn scores more
48%
level
23%
Paide scores more
29%

FC Levadia Tallinn at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Levadia Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meistriliiga: FC Levadia Tallinn 2–1 Paide

FC Levadia Tallinn beat Paide 2-1 in Meistriliiga on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at A. Le Coq Arena in Tallinn.