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Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Paide
Paide
CANC
00:00
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
2/23/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Paide32%
×Draw25%
FC Levadia Tallinn42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paide
1.28
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.50

FC Levadia Tallinn creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Paide
1.89
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.33

allows per match

Paide
1.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.67

finishing

Paide+0.00on par
FC Levadia Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paide ↓

FC Levadia Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Paide or draw
58%
Paide or FC Levadia Tallinn
75%
Draw or FC Levadia Tallinn
68%

Winning margin

Paide wins by 2+
14%
FC Levadia Tallinn wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Paide 1+ goals
72%
Paide 2+ goals
37%
Paide 3+ goals
14%
FC Levadia Tallinn 1+ goals
78%
FC Levadia Tallinn 2+ goals
44%
FC Levadia Tallinn 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Paide (draw refunded)
43%
FC Levadia Tallinn (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paide at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

FC Levadia Tallinn away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paide attack 1.89 + FC Levadia Tallinn defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

FC Levadia Tallinn attack 1.33 + Paide defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Paide scores more
32%
level
25%
FC Levadia Tallinn scores more
42%

FC Levadia Tallinn at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Levadia Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paide face FC Levadia Tallinn (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Paide hosting FC Levadia Tallinn. Match starts February 23, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Paide host FC Levadia Tallinn at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.